Tiếng Việt
中文 (中国)Vietnam’s exports achieved remarkable results in the first eight months of 2025, but the real “test” lies ahead as the global economy slows and the United States’ new tariff policy takes effect. Facing these challenges, the Government, associations, and enterprises are implementing coordinated measures to sustain growth and pursue the ambitious goal of 800 billion USD in trade turnover this year.
Strong Performance in External Trade
Vietnam’s total trade turnover in the first eight months of 2025 is estimated at 600 billion USD, up 16.3% year-on-year. Of this, exports reached nearly 306 billion USD, up 14.8%, exceeding the National Assembly and Government’s growth target of 12%. Average monthly exports in the first five months stood at 38.2 billion USD, rising to 42 billion USD in July and August. If this trend continues, total trade turnover could hit 800 billion USD, solidifying Vietnam’s position among the world’s top 15 trading economies. Despite global headwinds, the trade balance maintained a surplus of 14 billion USD after eight months. Most key export sectors and markets recorded positive growth, with several markets surging by 45-47%. The final months of 2025 are expected to bring new difficulties. The global economic outlook remains uncertain with the US tariff policy, strategic competition, and trade conflicts among major economies intensifying. Inflation, rising prices, and disrupted global supply chains are adding pressure to export-dependent economies like Vietnam.The World Bank (WB) warns that export growth will likely moderate. Although new export orders improved in July 2025 after the 20% tariff announcement, they remain subdued. WB projects global growth to slow from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.3–2.4% during 2025-2026, mainly due to weak trade and persistent geopolitical tensions.The US and China – Vietnam’s two largest trading partners—are both forecasted to see slower growth, reducing import demand and intensifying pressure on Vietnam’s key export sectors.
Industry Reactions: Challenges and Adaptation
In the textile and garment sector, exports to the US reached 10.3 billion USD in the first seven months, up 15%. However, new tariffs have raised costs, cut profits, and slowed digital and green transformation initiatives. The Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association (VITAS) recommends stronger negotiations with partners and diversification toward the EU, UK, and ASEAN markets. For leather and footwear, exports increased by about 10% in the first eight months, with the US market up 12%. The 20% tariff has yet to trigger order shifts but has caused slight price hikes for high-end shoes in the US. Rising costs and price pressures have limited Vietnam’s ability to compete with Chinese suppliers.The wood and forestry industry achieved 11.2 billion USD in exports, up 7%. Although modest, it remains acceptable amid tariff challenges. The US accounts for over 50% of exports, while five major markets (US, Japan, China, South Korea, EU) represent 90% of total trade, showing limited diversification potential. Meanwhile, electronics remain a bright spot with 100 billion USD in exports, up 25% year-on-year. Firms took advantage of a 90-day tax grace period to push orders, though many US partners have since requested 10% price cuts to share costs.
Industry Reactions: Challenges and Adaptation Toward the 800-Billion-USD Milestone
In the textile and garment sector, exports to the US reached 10.3 billion USD in the first seven months, up 15%. However, new tariffs have raised costs, cut profits, and slowed digital and green transformation initiatives. The Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association (VITAS) recommends stronger negotiations with partners and diversification toward the EU, UK, and ASEAN markets.For leather and footwear, exports increased by about 10% in the first eight months, with the US market up 12%. The 20% tariff has yet to trigger order shifts but has caused slight price hikes for high-end shoes in the US. Rising costs and price pressures have limited Vietnam’s ability to compete with Chinese suppliers.The wood and forestry industry achieved 11.2 billion USD in exports, up 7%. Although modest, it remains acceptable amid tariff challenges. The US accounts for over 50% of exports, while five major markets (US, Japan, China, South Korea, EU) represent 90% of total trade, showing limited diversification potential. Meanwhile, electronics remain a bright spot with 100 billion USD in exports, up 25% year-on-year. Firms took advantage of a 90-day tax grace period to push orders, though many US partners have since requested 10% price cuts to share costs.
The Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) has instructed industries to address raw material shortages by developing domestic supply hubs and studying China’s industrial cluster model. Minister Nguyen Hong Dien stated that the Government has issued Decree 205 on supporting industries and is finalizing the Law on Key Industrial Development, prioritizing material industries.To achieve the 12% export growth goal, Vietnam must secure at least 150 billion USD in exports in the last four months, averaging 37.5 billion USD per month.The Ministry also emphasizes trade promotion-both online and offline, strengthening connections between domestic producers and global importers, diversifying markets, and maximizing free trade agreements (FTAs). The MOIT targets an average export growth rate of 8.5% for 2025 and 10% for 2026-2030. “We can no longer rely on slogans progress must be shown through concrete results,” Minister Dien stressed.With unified action from the Government, associations, and businesses, Vietnam has strong grounds to overcome challenges and confidently advance toward the historic 800-billion-USD trade turnover milestone in 2025.